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Early Escape (from Alcatraz) Plan...
CREATED: 08/28/12 by Luke REPLIES: 6
Luke's ravatar Luke    JOINED: 11/28/10    POSTS: 330
Early Escape (from Alcatraz) Plan...
POSTED: 8/28/12 5:17 PM

Apparently the world-famous Escape From Alcatraz Triathlon is being moved up to March 3rd (yes... March!) next year to accomodate the America's Cup sailing race.

http://www.escapefromalcatraztriathlon.com/Assets/ESCAPE+From+Alcatraz/2013DateAnnounce.pdf

I did this race in May 2010, and the water temp was 54-degrees. They expect it to be in the low 50s in March... pretty chilly! But an amazing race nonetheless!

-Luke

dsgrunning's ravatar dsgrunning    JOINED: 2/28/09    POSTS: 1267
RE: Early Escape (from Alcatraz) Plan...
POSTED: 8/28/12 5:46 PM

It's $400 next year. Dollar per mileage, it makes the $1200 IMNY look cheap ... but then again, you don't have to drink raw sewage during the swim like NY.

Tuan

Luke's ravatar Luke    JOINED: 11/28/10    POSTS: 330
RE: Early Escape (from Alcatraz) Plan...
POSTED: 8/28/12 11:23 PM

Escape From Alcatraz is on the triathlete's all-time bucket list. Plus the course is far more scenic than IMNJ. Alcatraz is probably the 2nd most famous triathlon out there, second only to Kona. Definitely worth the $400 entry fee... at least once!

Nevertheless, Tuan raises a good point, re: Dollars Per Mileage. Using IMNJ as a baseline and taking dollars per mile to the extreme would create a rule saying that you can never run a 5K that costs more than $25. While I agree that 5Ks should be $25 or less, that's probably about the average entry fee these days, and it's going up. Dollars Per Mile simply does not serve as a linear function to measure cost per race distance. Placing distance raced (in miles) on the x-axis and race entry fee (in $ American) on the y-axis, I submit you will see more of a reverse exponential function, with about $10 as the y-intercept (if it were possible to charge an entry fee to race 0 miles... but that's just ridiculous). Editors note: NYC Triathlon actually charges a non-refundable $11 to enter a lottery to possibly be selected to compete in the race, so maybe the y-intercept in the proposed model is accurate. Further, I would argue that the top limit should not exceed $1000... however the Ironman Corporation has managed to find a way to break through this asymptote. Further research into just how much money races can squeeze out of participants is needed to determine the upper limits of what people are willing to pay for a day of suffering.

-Luke (King of the Nerds)

pmahler's ravatar pmahler    JOINED: 1/21/12    POSTS: 42
RE: Early Escape (from Alcatraz) Plan...
POSTED: 8/29/12 9:56 AM

We need someone to tabulate all the USAT races by distance and entry fee and fit a curve with a regression. I would guess it would be an asymmetric parabola with supersprint/sprint races and IM/novelty races both high relative to olympics and halfs.

kst718's ravatar kst718    JOINED: 8/29/11    POSTS: 91
RE: Early Escape (from Alcatraz) Plan...
POSTED: 8/29/12 11:58 AM

Or you could do the Alcatraz Challenge Aquathon, which is just the swim/run. (The run is from Chrissy Field over the Golden Gate Bridge and back, around 7 miles.) The entry fee is significantly lower and you don't have to ship your bike out west. I did it last year and it was fantastic! It usually takes place in mid July, so water temps are in the 60s, but the dates next year are still TBD.

Luke's ravatar Luke    JOINED: 11/28/10    POSTS: 330
RE: Early Escape (from Alcatraz) Plan...
POSTED: 8/29/12 2:30 PM

After more reflection, I believe Cost Per Mileage would best be modeled by a polynomial function. The y-intercept lies at $11 (an approximation of the "convenience charge" to register online). The slope increases up to the point of a sprint tri, then dips slightly for an olympic distance tri, as leading researcher pmahler alluded to in his dissertation above. It then continues to drop sharply for non-conventional distance events (like the Half-Full Tri), then curves sharply upward for Ironman sponsored 70.3, drops sharply for other odd distances, then spikes for Ironman sponsored 140.6 events. This is the right-most peak, as the function drops sharply for points above 140.6, as seen in the projected poor turnout for the PeasantMan 140.8 knockoff race in New York.

Although often overlooked, there is also an unrelated Cost Per Mileage function that exists below the x-axis for professional athletes. While there is no negative y-intercept, there is a very highly negative y-value very near the y-axis at 100m, as reprsented by the points labeled "Bolt" and "Phelps", who are paid generously to participate in events. The graph from here acts much like a step-wise function, jumping nearly to zero as the x-value (mileage) increases. We see notable high negative values again at x-values of 1 mile, 26.2 miles, 51.5K, and 140.6 miles. Other negative y-avalues of note beyond 140.6 appear as the points labelled LeTour and Iditarod.

The DC Triclub Research Institute is still pouring tens of thousands of dollars into research examining "The Moonwalk", in order to determine how this relationship functions to the left of the y-axis.

-Luke
DC Triclub VP, Statistical Analysis & Wasting Precious Research Funds

Luke's ravatar Luke    JOINED: 11/28/10    POSTS: 330
RE: Early Escape (from Alcatraz) Plan...
POSTED: 8/29/12 2:30 PM

After more reflection, I believe Cost Per Mileage would best be modeled by a polynomial function. The y-intercept lies at $11 (an approximation of the "convenience charge" to register online). The slope increases up to the point of a sprint tri, then dips slightly for an olympic distance tri, as leading researcher pmahler alluded to in his dissertation above. It then continues to drop sharply for non-conventional distance events (like the Half-Full Tri), then curves sharply upward for Ironman sponsored 70.3, drops sharply for other odd distances, then spikes for Ironman sponsored 140.6 events. This is the right-most peak, as the function drops sharply for points above 140.6, as seen in the projected poor turnout for the PeasantMan 140.8 knockoff race in New York.

Although often overlooked, there is also an unrelated Cost Per Mileage function that exists below the x-axis for professional athletes. While there is no negative y-intercept, there is a very highly negative y-value very near the y-axis at 100m, as reprsented by the points labeled "Bolt" and "Phelps", who are paid generously to participate in events. The graph from here acts much like a step-wise function, jumping nearly to zero as the x-value (mileage) increases. We see notable high negative values again at x-values of 1 mile, 26.2 miles, 51.5K, and 140.6 miles. Other negative y-avalues of note beyond 140.6 appear as the points labelled LeTour and Iditarod.

The DC Triclub Research Institute is still pouring tens of thousands of dollars into research examining "The Moonwalk", in order to determine how this relationship functions to the left of the y-axis.

-Luke
DC Triclub VP, Statistical Analysis & Wasting Precious Research Funds

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